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Back Celta or Draw in 12/1 treble

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Goals at both ends in Dortmund

Dortmund vs Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Dortmund come into the new Bundesliga season with many people suggesting this could be the year that they end Bayern Munich’s dominance in Germany, but Infogol disagrees.

Lucien Favre’s side ranked as only the fourth best team in the league on expected goals last season, and although they have strengthened their squad with the signings of Mats Hummels, Nico Schulz, Thorgan Hazard and Julian Brandt, a huge improvement in their process is needed if they are to get anywhere near Bayern again this season.

They were extremely fortunate to finish two points behind the champions, scoring 23 more than would be expected based on the chances they created (81 goals, 57.6 xGF), while also allowing an average of 1.21 xGA per game.

Augsburg finished last season down in 15th spot, though rated the 13th best team in the league on xG, and did show that they were a capable attacking team (1.34 xGF per game).

In Alfred Finnbogason Augsburg have a dangerous attacking player, with the Icelander posting the third highest xG/90 last season (0.66), so he will likely get at least one big chance here if he plays.

The Infogol model thinks this will be an entertaining game, with chances and goals at both ends, and calculates that there is a 58% chance of both team scoring (around 7/10), the 19/20 on offer represents good value.

Madrid nightmare to continue

Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid
Saturday, 16:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Celta Vigo needed a miracle last season in order to stay up, and they got one in the form of Iago Aspas.

The former Liverpool man came back from injury to pull Celta clear of the relegation zone, scoring 10 and assisting four goals in nine games.

Before he returned, Celta look certain of relegation, as their process was extremely poor, but his reintroduction sparked them into life, and in their last 10 games of the season, Celta ranked the fifth best team according to expected goals.

While Maxi Gómez has left to Valencia, Santi Mina has been brought in, as has Denis Suárez from Barcelona, so they arguably look stronger than last season, and can pose a real threat to Real Madrid here.

Real Madrid’s 18/19 season was on to forget, and fast, as they finished third and changed managers three times, with Zinedine Zidane coming back in around March after leaving before the season had started.

Their pre-season hasn’t been great either, as Los Blancos have been shipping goals left and right, while a few players haven’t looked at their sharpest – one of those being big money signing Eden Hazard.

While Madrid did have the second best process in the league last season, the signs are that more improvements are needed in order to get closer to Barcelona in the race for the title, but defensively they remain weak, despite the signings of Ferland Mendy and Éder Militão.

Madrid continue to play an open style of football, and one that sees them being vulnerable on the counter-attack – which so happens to be Celta’s main strength.

IG cel vs rma pre match probabilities.png

As can be seen in the above graphic, Betfair are giving Real Madrid a 60% chance of winning the game compared to Infogol’s 49%, and with Infogol suggesting Celta avoid defeat 51% of the time (equates to odds of around 19/20), the 13/10 on offer represents good value.

Value in Montpellier price

Bordeaux vs Montpellier
Saturday, 19:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Bordeaux got their season off to a disappointing start after a 3-1 defeat at Angers, a deserved defeat according to expected goals (xG: ANG 1.56 – 1.18 BOR).

Prior to the start of the season, Infogol rated Bordeaux as one of the worst teams in the league, tipping them for relegation, mainly based on their underlying numbers over the past few years which have been extremely worrying.

They ranked as the fourth worst team in the league last season, and although Laurent Koscielny has joined the fight, “Les Girondins” are expected to struggle.

Montpellier impressed greatly last season, ranking as the sixth best team in the league according to xG, with an underlying process that suggests that they could compete for a European place.

They started the season with a 1-0 defeat at home to Rennes, and while that may set alarm bells ringing, a closer look at that game shows just how impressive they were.

“La Paillade” were extremely unlucky to lose that game, having created by far and away the better of the chances (xG: MON 2.62 – 0.98 REN), conceding just one ‘big chance’.

Andy Delort missed a penalty in that game, but he won’t let that get him down after an impressive 18/19 in which he averaged 0.36 xG/90, and will prove a handful for Bordeaux.

IG bor vs mon pre match probabilities.png

There are serious question marks surrounding Bordeaux, while Montpellier look to be strong again this season, and the Infogol model thinks Montpellier should be priced at around 11/8 (42%), so the 15/8 on offer should be snapped up.

The Infogol model calculates that this treble should be around 7/1, but it is available at 12/1 on the Sportsbook

Visit infogol.net and get all of our football tips




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